Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: Credibility of Modelling

(Proceedings of ModelCARE 2007 Conference, held in Denmark, September 2007). IAHS Publ. 320, 2008, 289-294.

Recent advances in parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment in integrated hydrological modelling

H. Madsen¹, R.-S. Blasone² & D. Rosbjerg²

1 DHI Water–Environment–Health, Agern Allé 5, DK-2970 Hørsholm, Denmark

hem@dhigroup.com

2 Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Building 115, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark

Abstract Research on parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modelling has mainly concentrated on application in groundwater and lumped, conceptual types of rainfall–runoff models. While there is a long tradition for using statistically rigorous regression-based methods in groundwater modelling, techniques that originate from optimisation theory and Bayesian or pseudo Bayesian statistical methods have found widespread application in rainfall–runoff modelling. So far not much research has been devoted to applications in more complex, distributed models that integrate groundwater and surface water processes. This paper discusses and presents recent research results that have advanced our understanding and use of different methods for parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment in integrated hydrological modelling.

Key words integrated hydrological modelling; parameter estimation; numerical optimisation; GLUE;
Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling