Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale (Proceedings of the third International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, Bochum, Germany, September 2006). IAHS Publ. 317, 2007, 283–288.
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Geum River Basin, Korea
YOUNG-OH KIM1, HYUNG IL-EUM1, DAE IL JEONG1, DONG-HYUN KANG1, DONG-HYUN CHA2 & DONG-KYOU LEE2
1 School of Civil, Urban & Geosystem Engng, Seoul National University San 56-1 Shillim-dong Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744, Korea
2 School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University San 56-1 Shillim-dong Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-747, Korea
Abstract Many countries are preparing national or regional river basin plans to mitigate the potential effects of climate change. This study applies a chained modelling procedure to evaluating climate change impacts on the Geum River Basin from 2030 to 2049. Six GCM-driven climate change scenarios are downscaled and input to the abcd monthly water balance model. A simulation model built in the STELLA environment is used to evaluate system sensitivity to changes in streamflow. Next, sampling stochastic dynamic programming is used to identify potential operational alternatives and carry out the survey to recommend the adaptations available in the basin.
Key words abcd model; adaptations; climate change; GCM; Korea; SNURCM; vulnerability