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Optimization of cropped area, based on forecast streamflows (a case study: Soofichay irrigation systems)

SAEED MORID¹, NAZANIN SHAHKARAMI¹ & MOHAMMAD A. RAHIMI JAMNANI²

1 College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modarres University, PO Box 14113-336, Tehran, Iran

morid_sa@modares.ac.ir

2 Tehran AB-Khak Consulting Engineers, Karadj, Iran

Abstract An indication of cropped area according to available water resources in different conditions, and especially during drought spells, is of great importance. This paper is an attempt to fulfil this task using a proper approach for river flows forecasting and an optimization model. The first step is that the 6-month river flows were forecasted using artificial neural networks (ANNs). In the next step, the relationship between the first and second 6-month flows were analysed and calculated. However, the results showed that it is necessary to use different approaches for wet and dry years. Furthermore, the optimiza­tion model was set up to indicate areas of cultivation for the study area’s cropping pattern with respect to the forecast flows. The results showed that the applied methodology indicated optimum cropped area with respect to available water resources, and can be considered as a suitable method for drought mitigation plans.

Key word Artificial Neural Networks; cropped area; drought; optimization model; Soofichay irrigation system