Reducing the Vulnerability of Societies to Water Related Risks at the Basin Scale (Proceedings of the third International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management, Bochum, Germany, September 2006). IAHS Publ. 317, 2007, 197–203.
Exploratory modelling applied to Integrated Water Resources Management
LUIS SAMANIEGO1 & ANDRÁS BÁRDOSSY2
1 UFZ-Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany
2 Institute of Hydraulic Engineering, University of Stuttgart, Germany
Abstract One of the most important activities related to water resources management consists of finding suitable development strategies for a given river basin. In this paper an exploratory modelling technique will be used instead of the standard scenario approach to assess the robustness of a proposed strategy. Preliminary tests of this technique in the Körsch River basin in Germany suggested that this approach poses many advantages if it is compared with the scenario approach, namely: (1) one can “stress test” a strategy and assess its inherent risk of failure; and (2) one can find events or parameter values under which a good strategy may fail.
Key words exploratory modelling; risk; risk based strategic planning; uncertainty