Changes in Water Resources Systems:
Methodologies to Maintain Water Security and Ensure Integrated Management
(Proceedings of Symposium HS3006 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 315, 2007, 221-227.
Social
impact assessment of integrated flood risks based on Catastrophe Theory
LI JIQING1,2, JI
CHANGMING1 & MIGUEL A. MARIÑO2
1 North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2 Hydrology Program and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis, California 95616, USA
Abstract Owing to the natural and social attributes of floods, assessment
of integrated flood risks should include both technical and social assessments. When considering social assessment of risks, three questions typically arise: (1) how
high is the ability of humans to endure risk? (2) what risk level is acceptable
for humans? and (3) to what extent can floods affect society? By considering the transient
attribute of flood disaster risk both in nature and society, this paper analyses the
basic composition of assessment of integrated flood risks, which consists of risk of casualties of people,
economic risk, environmental risk, and potential risks. The paper establishes an assessment index system for the Yangtze River and presents an assessment
method for integrated flood risks based on the Catastrophe
Theory. By using an orthogonal formula, the calculation of each index is carried out from the lowest layer to the top layer according to the type of catastrophe to get a risk sequence of the
Yangtze River basin during 1995–2000. The method offers an answer to the question: to what extent can
floods affect society?
Key words Catastrophe Theory; flood disaster; integrated risk; social assessment