Changes in Water Resources Systems:
Methodologies to Maintain Water Security and Ensure Integrated Management
(Proceedings of Symposium HS3006 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 315, 2007,192-198
Scenario
development for water resources planning and management
Steven Stewart1,2, Mohammed Mahmoud1,2, Yuqiong Liu1,2, Holly Hartmann1,4, Thorsten Wagener1,3 & Hoshin Gupta1,2
1 SAHRA, Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, PO Box 210158-B Tucson, Arizona 85721-0158, USA
2 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
3 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA
4 CLIMAS, Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA
Abstract We report progress on a novel effort to develop a unified framework for constructing scenarios for water resource management. The framework comprises five iterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. While the scenario framework can be applied to most water resource applications, we place particular emphasis on semiarid environments and forces not typically considered in the traditional water management process such as unforeseen changes in government institutions, or second-order effects of climate change on environmental systems. The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various water management strategies. In addition, scenarios can consider the possible effects of external drivers, such as changes in political institutions, or large-scale environmental change that may be especially important in developing countries.
Key
words modelling;
planning; projections; scenarios; stakeholder; water resources; uncertainty