Changes in Water Resources Systems: Methodologies to Maintain Water Security and Ensure Integrated Management (Proceedings of Symposium HS3006 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 315, 2007, 172-178.

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Effects of climate change and population growth on water resources in Korea

HEEJUN CHANG¹, JON FRANCZYK¹, DEG-HYO BAE², IL-WON JUNG², EUN-SOON IM³ & WON-TAE KWON³

1 Department of Geography, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon 97201, USA

changh@pdx.edu

2 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sejong University, #98 Kunja-dong, Kwangjin-Gu, Seoul, 143-747, Korea

3 Climate Research Laboratory, Korea Meteorological Research Institute, 460-18 Shindaebang-2dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, 156-720, Korea

Abstract We assessed the effects of climate change and population growth on freshwater resources in Korea river basins around 2025 using numerical experiments combining regional climate change scenarios, hydrological models, and population and industrial growth scenarios. Our study suggests increasing regional variations of water stress, imposing significant stress in river basins where increasing temperatures and population and industrial growth are likely to occur concurrently. Both the Han River and Nakdong River basins are projected to be more vulnerable than other basins. Climate change alone could decrease mean annual runoff by 2–12% in four major river basins, while climate change could lead to more runoff in the Han River basin. Uncertainty still remains when runoff scenarios are used to assess socioeconomic impacts for each sub-basin that has diverse topographic and economic characteristics. As the first national assessment of climate change, this study will provide a cornerstone for developing sustainable water resource management strategies in Korea.

Key words climate change; growth; vulnerability; water resources

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