Changes in Water Resources Systems:
Methodologies to Maintain Water Security and Ensure Integrated Management
(Proceedings of Symposium HS3006 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 315, 2007, 125-131
Uncertainty
of the water resources allocation system by the Danjiangkou reservoir
LI YING1, LI ZHIJIA1 & ZHANG LISHENG2
1 College of Water Resources and Environment, University of Hohai, Xikang Road 1, Nanjing 210098, China,
lily7028@yahoo.com
2 Changjiang Institute of Survey, Planning, Design and Research, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Jiefang Avenu 1863, Wuhan 430010, China
Abstract The Danjiangkou reservoir is planned to be the water source for a water diversion project from south to north China, with 14.5 billion m3 of water transferred to the north in 2030. The water quantity to be diverted is not only associated with the reservoir capacity, but also with many other factors. In this study, inflow and reservoir release were selected as two major factors. A stochastic runoff simulation model was applied to analyse the uncertainty of the reservoir inflow. Different scenarios of water demand from the downstream area were developed. Monte Carlo based simulations and probability theory were used to assess the uncertainty and risk of water shortage.
Key
words probability;
reservoir; risk; uncertainty; water supply