Changes in Water Resources Systems:
Methodologies to Maintain Water Security and Ensure Integrated Management
(Proceedings of Symposium HS3006 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 315, 2007, 117-124
Spatial
developments, subsidence and climate change: adding or multiplying?
OLIVIER HOES
Department of Water Resources, Delft University of Technology, PO Box 5048, 2600 GA Delft, The Netherlands
Abstract Lowland areas are vulnerable to inundations by extreme precipitation, as runoff may temporarily exceed the limited discharge capacity of drainage canals and pumping stations. This type of flooding is not life threatening, but can cause considerable economic damage. Moreover, it is likely that the frequency and damage of this type of flood event will increase in the future due to ongoing processes, e.g. climate change, subsidence, and intensification of land use by spatial developments. The research question addressed in this paper is: how do climate change, subsidence, and spatial developments increase the risk of flooding? To answer this question the case of the Flevo polder was studied. It will be shown that the risk increase of spatial developments, subsidence and climate change is simultaneously larger than the sum of the individual risk increase per category.
Key
words
climate change; continuous simulations; risk; spatial developments;
subsidence