Quantification and Reduction of
Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management (Proceedings
of Symposium HS2004 at IUGG2007, Perugia, July 2007). IAHS Publ. 313, 2007, 497-504
Hydrological
simulation and prediction for environmental change
JIAN YUN ZHANG1, ZHIYU LIU2 & CHUANBAO ZHU2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineer, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, 223,Guangzhou Road, 210029 Nanjing, China
jyzhang@mwr.gov.cn
2 Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources, Lane 2, Baiguang Road, 100053 Beijing, China
Abstract A strong environmental change has been recognized in China with the impacts of climate change and intensive human activities on land use. In this paper, first environmental changes in China, such as those caused by human activities, land use, climate change, and social and economic development, are presented. Secondly, the hydrological prediction models and systems and their application in China are briefly introduced. Finally, it is pointed out that new hydrological prediction models, such as distributed hydrological models based on geographical information, should be developed because long-time data series will be invalid for traditional model calibration due to changing current and future environmental conditions.
Key words environmental change; hydrological
prediction; PUB