Water in Celtic Countries: Quantity, Quality and Climate Variability (Proceedings of the Fourth InterCeltic Colloquium on Hydrology and Management of Water Resources, Guimarães, Portugal, July 2005). IAHS Publ. 310, 2007, 103-110.
Models to predict the impact of the climate
changes on aquifer recharge
MANUEL MENDES OLIVEIRA1, MARIA EMÍLIA NOVO2 &
JOÃO PAULO LOBO FERREIRA1
1 Laboratório
Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Hydraulics and Environment Department
(DHA), Groundwater Division (NAS), Av. do Brasil, 101, 1700-066 Lisboa,
Portugal
2 Parque
Natural do Douro Internacional, Largo do Outeiro, no. 6, 5810-118 Freixo de
Espada à Cinta, Portugal
Abstract Climate change is a statistically significant alteration of the climate variables in terms of their distribution both in time and in space. These changes will have a direct impact on the hydrological system and an indirect impact on the quality of the surface and groundwater resources. This paper deals with the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge. Several models to estimate recharge are presented, among them the daily sequential water balance model is the most appropriate to attain this goal. Climate changes may be predicted using climate models. Average precipitation and temperature values are outputs of these models. For a case study area of north Portugal, theoretical forecasted precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series are used to study the impact of precipitation change in groundwater recharge. For a scenario of 70% of actual precipitation, recharge would decrease to 45% of the estimated actual recharge.
Key
words
climate change; Portugal; recharge; recharge assessment; water balance
models