Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World
Conference held at Havana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publ. 308, 2006, 483–489.
An historical analysis of drought in England and
Wales
GWYNETH A. COLE & TERRY J. MARSH
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK
gco@ceh.ac.uk
Abstract This paper presents a
chronology of drought in England and Wales from 1800 to the present day. It
demonstrates how documented historical evidence of drought impact and synthetic
flow series can be used to augment limited observed data and extend the period
over which natural climate variability can be investigated. Rainfall deficiency
analyses, seasonal partitioning of rainfall and an Aridity Index are presented
to assess the relative severity of each event and examine long-term trends in
drought frequency and magnitude. Over 30 important droughts were identified
over the 200 year period, with a repeated tendency for dry years to cluster
together to create multi-year droughts (e.g. 1798–1805, 1890–1909). Many
predate observed hydrological data, leading to possible underestimation of
drought risk. No compelling trends of increasing drought frequency or magnitude
were found, although winter and summer rainfall showed marked spatial and
temporal differences across England.
Key words drought; drought impact; historical
analyses; BHS Chronology; deficiency;
water resources; England and Wales