Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World Conference held at Havana, Cuba, No

Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World Conference held at Havana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publ. 308, 2006, 265–269.

An approach to the vulnerability analysis of intensive precipitation in Cuba

EDUARDO O. PLANOS GUTIÉRREZ & MIRIAM E. LIMIA MARTÍNEZ

Centre of Climate, Institute of Meteorology of Cuba, Loma de Casablanca S.N. Ciudad de la Habana, La Habana, Municipio Regla, Cuba

eduardo.planos@insmet.cu

Abstract Hydrological analyses typically use a strict probabilistic approach to predicting extreme hydrological phenomena and analyse the vulnerability of regions to intense precipitation. Although it is well known that probabilistic approaches have weaknesses, when this method is complemented with the physical analysis of precipitation and the analysis of how meteorological systems interact with geomorphology, it can be successfully used to characterize the hydrological vulnerability of regions. This paper presents a methodological approach for the regional analysis of the vulnerability due to intensive precipitation. The methodology uses:

(a) probabilistic and stochastic analysis;

(b) local geographical scale characterization;

(d) regional relations between the depth of precipitations of different durations;

(e) maps of the return periods of maximum precipitation;

(f) stochastic maps and

(g) graphs of stochastic security. A case study that uses the methodology in Eastern Cuba is presented.

Key words intensive precipitation; probability; frequency; stochastic; vulnerability