Climate Variability and Change—Hydrological Impacts (Proceedings of the Fifth FRIEND World Conference held at Havana, Cuba, November 2006), IAHS Publ. 308, 2006, 158–162.

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Seasonal forecasting of river flows: a review of the state-of-the-art

JENNIFER EASEY¹, CHRISTEL PRUDHOMME¹ & DAVID M. HANNAH²

1 Centre of Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK

chrp@ceh.ac.uk

2 School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK

Abstract This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in seasonal forecasting of river flows. Most previous studies have used statistical methods, which been shown to be more reliable than dynamical approaches. However, empirical techniques have limitations; and successful applications of downscaled GCM data show that this approach may also have potential for seasonal forecasting of hydrology.

Key words dynamical models; downscaling; GCMs; river flow; seasonal forecasting; statistical models; UK

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