Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modelling: From Uncertainty to Decision Making (Proceedings of ModelCARE’2005, The Hague, The Netherlands, June 2005). IAHS Publ. 304, 2006. pp.297–302.

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s risk-based decision analysis for groundwater remediation and monitoring

 

PAUL A. DAVIS1, DIANA HOLLIS2, KAY H. BIRDSELL2, VELIMIR V. VESSELINOV2, DANIEL E. RIVES3 & SERGEY POZDNIAKOV4

1 EnviroLogic, Inc., 12127B Suite 4, State Highway 14 North, Cedar Crest, New Mexico 87008, USA

p_davis@envirologicinc.com

2 Earth and Environmental Sciences, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA

3 EnviroLogic, Inc., Maipú 76, 1876 Bernal, Argentina

4 Department of Hydrogeology, Moscow State University, Leninskie Gory, 119899 Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract Contaminant transport models can provide valuable information for decisions regarding environmental management. When coupled with quantitative uncertainty, sensitivity, and economic-worth analyses, contaminant transport models can be used to optimize overall performance of an environmental management system. This paper describes a risk-informed decision process developed and applied at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, USA, to optimize the management of groundwater-protection program resources. A separate publication (Vesselinov & Birdsell, 2005) describes the groundwater transport model developed to assess uncertainty in this application, while this paper focuses on the decision analysis model developed to manage that uncertainty.

Keywords decision analysis; environmental restoration; groundwater; Monte Carlo analysis; sensitivity analysis; simulation; uncertainty analysis