Predictions in Ungauged Basins: Promise and Progress (Proceedings of symposium S7 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS Publ. 303, 2006, 454-462.

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Towards an uncertainty framework for predictions in ungauged basins: The Uncertainty Working Group

THORSTEN Wagener¹, JIM Freer², ERWIN Zehe³, KEITH Beven², HOSHIN V. Gupta⁴ & ANDRAS Bardossy⁵

1 Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Pennsylvania State University, 226B Sackett, University Park, Pennsylvania 16801, USA

thorsten@engr.psu.edu

2 Department of Environmental Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ, UK

3 Institut fuer Geooekologie, Universitaet Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24-25, Haus 1 bzw. 12 D-14476 Golm, Germany

4 Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, John W. Harshbarger Building, PO Box 210011·Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA

5 Institut für Wasserbau, Universitätsbereich Vaihingen, Pfaffenwaldring 61, D-70550 Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract The reduction of predictive uncertainty is the main objective and the main criterion of success for the Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of IAHS. Achieving this goal requires that an uncertainty framework is created in which models, data and methods can be evaluated with respect to their impact on predictive uncertainty. Here we provide a first overview of the uncertainty working group, including its main objectives and how we intend to achieve them.

Key words hydrological modelling; predictions in ungauged basins; uncertainty

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