Predictions
in Ungauged Basins: Promise and Progress (Proceedings of symposium S7 held during the
Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS
Publ. 303, 2006, 99-107.
Evaluation of water quantity and quality modelling
in ungauged European basins
BERIT ARHEIMER
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological
Institute (SMHI), SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden
Abstract The conceptual
rainfall–runoff model HBV was evaluated for predictions in ungauged basins in
Sweden and in selected basins across Europe. The paper mainly stresses the
impact of model parameter estimation and meteorological input data. Daily simulations
for 1000 sub-basins (of which 700 are ungauged) for the period 1961–2002 include
all of Sweden, normally with a volume
error <5%. When transferring the model to 18 European basins,
it was concluded that modelling was normally
trustworthy (i.e. R2 > 0.7 and VE <
5%) if rainfall data was
representative. The automatically calibrated parameter values could not easily
be related to basin characteristics. However, blind-test simulations showed
that a priori parameter values gave
almost as good results as the calibrated model. This highlights the influence of
the modeller’s experience and knowledge on the results.
Key words
blind tests;
Europe; HBV model; parameter estimation; PUB; Sweden