GIS and Remote Sensing in Hydrology, Water Resources and Environment (Proceedings of ICGRHWE held at the Three Gorges Dam, China, September 2003). IAHS Publ. 289, 2004, 66-72

Abstract A Monte Carlo simulation for short-term probabilistic forecasting of basin flood stage conditions is proposed. A stochastic rainfall pattern simulation model capable of generating input for a distributed rainfall–runoff model was developed. Generation of rainfall patterns over a 6-h period was achieved by using a translation vector rainfall forecasting process modified to account for uncertainties in rainfall pattern development. The stochastic rainfall generation model was coupled with a distributed rainfall–runoff model in a Monte Carlo simulation to provide a short-term ensemble forecast of distributed flood discharge. An example application of the proposed probabilistic flood stage forecasting system is provided for a typhoon event that occurred in the vicinity of the Nagara River basin located in Gifu, Japan.

Key words distributed rainfall–runoff model; hydrological model; Monte Carlo simulation; precipitation prediction; probabilistic flood forecasting; stochastic rainfall generation; uncertainty