Sediment Transfer through the Fluvial System (Proceedings of a symposium held in Moscow, August 2004). IAHS Publ. 288, 2004, 345–353

1 Landcare Research, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand

2 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), PO Box 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand

Abstract Stochastic modelling of soil erosion is based on calculation of the probability of soil particle detachment, which is the probability of excess of driving forces above resistance forces. These probability calculations require the probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the main hydrodynamic and soil structure characteristics, estimated experimentally or theoretically. The field of hydrodynamic forces (flow velocities and pressure distribution though space and time) is calculated with Large Eddy Simulation. Soil structure is estimated in terms of Kolmogorov’s probabilistic approach to soil failure and aggregation. The PDF approach explicitly describes the process of soil erosion and gives a theoretical explanation of the great diversity in empirical relationships between erosion rate and main erosion factors.

Key words large eddy simulation; probability of detachment; probabilistic soil failure; soil erosion; stochastic modelling