Water Resources Systems—Hydrological Risk, Management and Development (Proceedings of symposium HS02b held during IUGG2003 at Sapporo, July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 281, 2003. p. 358–364.

Abstract New results of an assessment of future world water use obtained at SHI in 2001 are presented. Using data from Shiklomanov (2003) as well as new data on water use all over the world, a new scenario has been developed for sustainable global water use before 2025, i.e. a "Sustainable Development" scenario. This scenario is an alternative to that used in Shiklomanov (2003) which was developed in 1997 and is known as the "Conventional Scenario". According to the Sustainable Development scenario, world water use until 2025 will be approximately stable. It will increase by about 6% before 2010, and then gradually decrease. Despite the fact that stabilization (and even a decrease of water use in the future) can significantly decrease the pressure on water resources, this will not greatly affect the specific water availability in most regions in the world due to population growth.

Key words global water resources; water availability; water use