Preface by Eva Boegh, Harald Kunstmann,
Thorsten Wagener, Alan Hall,
Luis Bastidas, Stewart Franks, Hoshin Gupta, Dan Rosbjerg & John Schaake
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1
1.1
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QUANTIFICATION AND REDUCTION OF PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORCING
Meteorological prediction and uncertainty
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Reducing
uncertainty in selecting climate models for hydrological impact assessments A.
J. Pitman & S. E. Perkins
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3
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Multi-model climate change scenarios for southwest
Western Australia and potential impacts on streamflow Guobin
Fu & Stephen P. Charles
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16
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Propagation of convection in
Africa: implications for predictability of precipitation Arlene
Laing, Richard Carbone & Vincenzo Levizzani
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24
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GPS and satellite
meteorology for understanding monsoon
dynamics over the Indian sub-continent
Anup K. Prasad, Ramesh P. Singh,
Shatrughan Singh & Dip S. Nanda
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33
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Linking the West African monsoon’s
onset with atmospheric circulation patterns Patrick Laux, Harald Kunstmann & András Bárdossy
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40
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A multi-index approach to inflow
prediction for water resources management Stewart W. Franks &
Adam M. Wyatt
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51
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1.2
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Spatial climate data and uncertainty
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Space–time representativity of precipitation
for rainfall–runoff modelling: experience from some case studies Uwe Haberlandt, Anna-Dorothea Ebner von
Eschenbach, Aslan Belli & Christian Gattke
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61
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Uncertainty characterization in a
combined IR/microwave scheme for remote sensing of precipitation Carlo De Marchi, Aris Georgakakos &
Christa Peters-Lidard
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70
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Empirically-based generator of synthetic
radar-rainfall data Gabriele
Villarini, Witold F. Krajewski & Grzegorz J. Ciach
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78
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Uncertainties
in water balance estimations due to scarce meteorological information: a case
study for the White Volta catchment in West Africa
Sven Wagner, Harald Kunstmann &
Andras Bardossy
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86
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Assessment
of rainfall and evaporation input data uncertainties on simulated runoff in
southern Africa Tendai Sawunyama & Denis Hughes
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98
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1.3
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Hydrological predictions using integrated
climate–hydrological modelling
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GEWEX
Hydrology Alan J. Hall, Richard G.
Lawford, John O. Roads,
John C. Schaake & Eric F. Wood
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109
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Hydrological predictability
investigation of global data sets for high-latitude river basins Yeugeniy
M. Gusev, Olga N. Nasonova, Larisa Y. Dzhogan &
Yeugeniy E. Kovalev
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127
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Integrated
atmospheric and hydrologic modelling for short-term and basin-scale forecasts
in a tropical semi-arid context Ana Cláudia Braga, Carlos O. Galvão, Enio
P. Souza, Enilson P. Cavalcanti, Renato Fernandes & Klécia Oliveira
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134
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Regional
climate change in the Middle East and impact
on hydrology in the Upper Jordan catchment Harald Kunstmann, Peter Suppan, Andreas Heckl &
Alon Rimmer
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141
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Modelling
regional climate change and the impact on surface and sub-surface hydrology
in the Volta Basin (West Africa) G.
Jung
& H. Kunstmann
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150
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Monthly
streamflow forecasts for the State of Ceará, Brazil Dirceu
S. Reis Jr, Eduardo S. Martins,
Luiz Sérgio V. Nascimento, Alexandre A. Costa &
Alan M. B. Alexandre
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158
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Coupling
meteorological and hydrological models for medium-range streamflow forecasts in
the Paraná Basin Walter Collischonn, Daniel Allasia,
Carlos E. M. Tucci & Adriano R. Paz
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167
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1.4
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Uncertainty in hydrological forecasting
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Experimental
hydrometeorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts and their
verification in the US National Weather Service Julie Demargne, Limin Wu, Dong-Jun Seo & John Schaake
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177
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Adjusting ensemble forecast probabilities
to reflect several climate forecasts
Jery R. Stedinger & Young-Oh Kim
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188
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“Outlier” catchments: what can we
learn from them in terms of prediction uncertainty in rainfall–runoff modelling? Nicolas Le Moine, Vazken
Andréassian, Charles
Perrin & Claude Michel
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195
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Understanding sources of uncertainty
in flash-flood forecasting for semi-arid regions Thorsten
Wagener, Hoshin Gupta, Soni Yatheendradas,
David Goodrich, Carl Unkrich & Mike Schaffner
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204
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Long-term probabilistic forecasting
of snowmelt flood characteristics and the forecast uncertainty Lev
Kuchment & Alexander Gelfan
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213
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Predictive uncertainty in climate
change impacts on floods Martijn J. Booij, Martijn Huisjes &
Arjen Y. Hoekstra
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221
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2
2.1
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MINIMIZING RISKS IN
WATER MANAGEMENT DECISIONS BY IMPROVING THE UNDERSTANDING AND SPATIAL REPRESENTATION OF THE COUPLED
LAND–ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM
Hydrological predictions using spatial
data and integrated land surface–atmosphere–hydrology modelling
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AMMA forcing data for a better understanding of
the West African monsoon surface–atmosphere–hydrology interactions A. Boone & P. deRosnay
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231
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Improved
scenario prediction by using coupled hydrological and atmospheric models Jesper
Overgaard, Michael B. Butts & Dan Rosbjerg
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242
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Representativeness
of point soil moisture observations, upscaling and assimilation Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Valentijn R. N.
Pauwels, Paul R. Houser, Timothy
Gish & Niko E. C. Verhoest
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249
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Can a land
surface model simulate runoff with the same accuracy as a hydrological model? Olga
N. Nasonova & Yeugeniy M. Gusev
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258
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Water
balance evaluation in Denmark using remote sensing-driven land surface
modelling and spatially distributed hydrological modelling Eva
Boegh,
Britt S. B. Christensen & Lars Troldborg
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266
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Comparing model performance of the HBV and VIC
models in the Rhine basin Aline Te Linde, Ruud Hurkmans, Jeroen
Aerts & Han Dolman
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278
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Analysis of water resource variability over the
irrigated area along the downstream reach of the Yellow River Huimin
Lei, Dawen Yang, Xinbing Liu & Shinjino Kanae
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286
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Water
consumption of Populus euphratica woodlands in an arid region of China Yonghua Zhu, Liliang Ren & Haishen Lü
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294
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2.2
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Geographical transferability of methods and predictions in ungauged
basins
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Testing
similarity indices to reduce predictive uncertainty in ungauged basins Ludovic Oudin, Vazken Andréassian, Claudia
Rojas-Serna, Nicolas Le Moine & Claude Michel
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303
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The use of
physical basin properties and runoff generation concepts as an aid to parameter
quantification in conceptual type rainfall–runoff models
Denis Hughes & Evison
Kapangaziwiri
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311
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Regionalization
of parameters of hydrological models: inclusion of model parameter
uncertainty Satish
Bastola, Hiroshi Ishidaira & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi
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319
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Regionalization
for uncertainty reduction in flows in ungauged basins
Martijn J. Booij, Dave L. E. H.
Deckers, Tom H. M. Rientjes & Maarten S. Krol
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329
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Assessment of the watershed yield of the Sakarya River basin, Turkey
Sabahattin Isik & Vijay P. Singh
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338
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Applicability
of the GIUH model to estimate flood peaks from ungauged catchments in arid
areas – a case study for the West Bank Ammar Jarrar, Niranjali Jayasuriya, Anan Jayyousi &
Maazuza Othman
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346
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Prediction
of rainfall–runoff model parameters in ungauged catchments
M. Zvolenský, K. Hlavčová,
S. Kohnová & J. Szolgay
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357
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Multilevel river classification as the
methodological basis for analysis of maximum
runoff values in different geographical regions Elena Asabina
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365
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The
Xinanjiang model from the perspective of PUB Liliang Ren, Fei
Yuan, Zhongbo Yu, Xiaoli Yang, Rulin Ouyang & Xianghu Li
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374
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2.3
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Meteorological
predictions and data assimilation for flood risk management
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Integrating
meteorological and uncertainty information in flood forecasting: the
FLOODRELIEF project Michael
B. Butts, Anne Katrine V. Falk,
Yunqing Xuan & Ian D. Cluckie
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385
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Reducing the uncertainty of flood forecasts
using multi-objective optimization algorithms for parameter estimation Yan Wang, Christian Gattke &
Andreas Schumann
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398
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Effects of
soil moisture parameterization on a real-time flood forecasting system based
on rainfall thresholds Giovanni
Ravazzani, Marco Mancini,
Ilaria Giudici & Paolo Amadio
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407
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Estimation
of extreme flow quantiles and quantile uncertainty for ungauged catchments Donald H. Burn, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda &
Chang Shu
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417
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Peak flow estimation
under parameter uncertainty in a real-time flood warning system for ungauged
basins Daniela Biondi &
Pasquale Versace
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425
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2.4
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Integrated water management systems for sustainable water management
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Demonstrating Integrated Forecast and Reservoir
Management (INFORM) for northern California in an operational environment K. P. Georgakakos,
N. E. Graham, A. P. Georgakakos & H. Yao
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439
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Coping
with predictive uncertainties in optimization of sustainable water resources Chin Man Mok, Nisai Wanakule, Armen Der
Kiureghian,
Steven M. Gorelick & Miao Zhang
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445
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RNN-based
inflow forecasting applied to reservoir operation via implicit stochastic
optimization Camilo Allyson Simões De Farias, Akihiro Kadota,
Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Koichi Suzuki
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452
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Effect of uncertainties
on the real-time operation of a lowland water system in The Netherlands Steven Weijs, Elgard van Leeuwen,
Peter-Jules van Overloop & Nick van de Giesen
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463
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Data assimilation in a large-scale distributed
hydrological model for medium-range flow forecasts Adriano Rolim Da Paz, Walter Collischonn,
Carlos E. M. Tucci, Robin T. Clarke & Daniel Allasia
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471
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Predictive models of reservoir storage-yield-reliability
functions: inter-comparison of regression and multi-layer perceptron
artificial neural network paradigms
Adebayo Adeloye
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479
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Analyse des périodes sèches
pour la gestion d’un barrage au nord de la Tunisie / Analysis of dry periods
for dam operation in northern Tunisia Mathlouthi Majid &
Lebdi Fethi
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487
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Hydrological simulation and prediction
for environmental change
Jian Yun Zhang, Zhiyu Liu &
Chuanbao Zhu
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497
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Key word index
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505
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