Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change

Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change

A pair of edited proceedings were produced for a symposium organized by the International Commission on Coupled Land–Atmosphere Systems (ICCLAS), supported by other IAHS commissions, programmes and working groups (ICSW, PUB, IAMAS, WCRP, CLIVAR, GEWEX, WMO/ UNESCO WCP-Water, and HELP), and held at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, in April 2005. The contents of both are listed here; the preface and abstracts of the papers in each can be seen at www.iahs.info.
Global climate variability and change threaten local water resource availability in many regions on Earth. The effects of natural climate variability and of anthropogenic change are particularly felt in less developed countries where flood and drought often result in substantial loss of life and livelihood. Coupled with the marked decline in observational networks, there is a critical need for reliable information relevant to hazard mitigation and water resource management. The usefulness of hydrological science in helping decision makers understand and cope with the impacts of climate variability and change needs to be assessed. The importance of this topic is reflected in the large number of contributions to the symposium. Selected papers have been compiled into two volumes. In each, the papers are grouped geographically; the symposium’s emphasis on less developed countries is reflected in the many papers from Asia and South America.

Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Impact Assessment and Decision Making
Edited by Thorsten Wagener, Stewart Franks, Hoshin V. Gupta, Eva Bøgh, Luis Bastidas, Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão Publ. 295 (2005) ISBN 1-901502-08-2; 356 + x pp. Price £58.50	Considers the assessment of the hydrological impacts of future climate and then addresses decision making for mitigation/adaptation strategies, given the uncertainties associated with predictions by water resources and hydrological extremes models.
Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Hydroclimatic Variability
Edited by Stewart Franks, Thorsten Wagener, Eva Bøgh, Hoshin V. Gupta, Luis Bastidas & Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão Publ. 296 (2005) ISBN 1-901502-13-9; 300 + x pp Price £58.50	This volume brings together diverse investigations from different climate zones and regions, many of the papers focusing on historic variability as a function of climate and/or land-use change.

Contents

Preface by Stewart Franks, Thorsten Wagener, Eva Bøgh, Hoshin V. Gupta, Luis Bastidas, Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão		v
	Background and Summary Regional hydrological impacts of climate change—hydroclimatic variability Stewart Franks & Thorsten Wagener	1
1	South America
Observed and modelled historical hydroclimatic variability in South America: cases of the Amazon, São Francisco and Paraná–La Plata rivers Jose A. Marengo (Invited)		7
Discharge variability within the Amazon basin J. Ronchail, D. Labat, J. Callède, G. Cochonneau, J. L. Guyot, N. Filizola & E. de Oliveira		21
2	Oceania
Hazard warning! Hydrological responses in the Fiji Islands to climate variability and severe meteorological events James Terry		33
Multi-decadal variability of rainfall and streamflow across eastern Australia Danielle C. Verdon, Adam M. Wyatt, Anthony S. Kiem & Stewart W. Franks		42
Identification of oscillations in historical global streamflow data using empirical mode decomposition Francis H. S. Chiew, Murray C. Peel, Gnanathikkam E. Amirthanathan & Geoffrey G. S. Pegram		53
3	North America and Europe
Multi-annual fluctuations in precipitation and their hydrological and ecological consequences in regional scale Krzysztof Blazejczyk, Wieslawa Kasperska-Wolowicz, Leszek Labedzki & Anna Kunert		65
Change detection in high river flows in Europe Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz		71
Influence of climate variability on water resources in the Bulgarian South Black Sea basin Bernardo Lizama Rivas & Ivanka Koleva-Lizama		81
Modelling hydrological responses of the Athabasca River basin to climate change by the Modified ISBA Land Surface Scheme Ernst Kerkhoven & Thian Yew Gan		89
Climate, water and renewable energy in the Nordic countries Árni Snorrason & Jóna Finndís Jónsdóttir		102
A distributed real-time semiarid flash-flood forecasting model utilizing radar data Soni Yatheendradas, Thorsten Wagener, Hoshin Gupta, Carl Unkrich, Mike Schaffner & David Goodrich		108
Evaluation of the effect of selective logging on the energy-water and carbon exchange processes Rafael Rosolem, Luis A. Bastidas, W. James Shuttleworth, Luis G. Goncalves De Goncalves, Eleanor J. Burke, Humberto R. Da Rocha, Scott D. Miller & Michael L. Goulden		118
4	Africa
Modèle de transformation pluie–débit basé sur le Principe de Moindre Action A. Afouda, E. A. Lawin, T. Lebel, C. Peugeot & L. Seguis		129
Storage capacity and long-term water balance of the Volta Basin, West Africa Jan Friesen, Marc Andreini, Winston Andah, Barnabas Amisigo & Nick van de Giesen		138
Vulnerabilité climatique et ses consequences sur les ecoulements du fleuve Sénégal Alioune Kane		146
Changements des régimes hydrologiques des rivières du sud-Cameroun: un impact de la variabilité climatique en zone équatoriale Gaston Liénou, Gil Mahé, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Eric Servat, Hélène Lubès-Niel, Daniel Sighomnou, Georges Emmanuel Ekodeck & Alain Dezetter		158
Sensibilité des cours d’eau ouest-africains aux changements climatiques et environnementaux: extrêmes et paradoxes Gil Mahé, Jean Claude Olivry & Eric Servat		169
Long-term trends of heavy rainfall in South Africa J. G. Ndiritu		178
Impact of a long drought period on a large carbonate aquifer: the Liassic aquifer of the Sais plain and Middle Atlas plateau (Morocco) Fouad Amraoui, Moumtaz Razack & L. Houssaine Bouchaou		184
Évaluation des impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau d’Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale S. Ardoin-Bardin, A. Dezetter, E. Servat, G. Mahé, J. E. Paturel, C. Dieulin & L. Casenave		194
How changing rainfall regimes may affect the water balance: a modelling approach in West Africa Matthieu Le Lay & Sylvie Galle		203
Spatial disaggregation of Sahelian rain fields: a new application of the Gibbs sampler Hubert Onibon, Thierry Lebel, Abel Afouda & Gilles Guillot		211
5	Asia
Predicting Central Asia river flows from regional precipitation and wind patterns during the preceding cold season Mathew Barlow & Michael Tippett		221
Precipitation trends and their impact on the discharge of China’s four largest rivers, 1951–1998 Ye Baisheng, Li Chong, Yang Daqing, Ding Yongjian & Shen Yongping		228
Geostatistical analysis of observed streamflow and its response to precipitation and temperature changes in the Yellow River Guobin Fu & Shulin Chen		238
Impacts of ENSO on monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan Akira Kawamura, Young-Hoon Jin, Kenji Jinno & Ronny Berndtsson		246
Relationship between ENSO and snow covered area in the Mekong and Yellow river basins Anthony S. Kiem, Mikhail V. Geogievsky, Hapuarachchige P. Hapuarachchi, Hiroshi Ishidaira & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi		255
Impact of natural variability and anthropogenic factors on the flood events in northeastern India U. C. Sharma & Vikas Sharma		265
Recent trend in spatiotemporal variation of rainfall over India—an investigation into basin-scale rainfall fluctuations Nityanand Singh, Neelima A. Sontakke, H. Narendra Singh & Amit Kumar Pandey		273
Modelling the spatial distribution of actual terrestrial evapotranspiration using a hydrological and meteorological approach Che-Sheng Zhan, Jun Xia, Zhao-Liang Li & Cun-Wen Niu		283
Downscaling atmospheric circulation data for monsoon rainfall forecasting in India Anupam K. Singh, Erwin Zehe & Andras Bardossy		291
Key word index		299