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*www.iahs.info*	Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change

A pair of edited proceedings were produced for a symposium organized by the International Commission on Coupled Land–Atmosphere Systems (ICCLAS), supported by other IAHS commissions, programmes and working groups (ICSW, PUB, IAMAS, WCRP, CLIVAR, GEWEX, WMO/ UNESCO WCP-Water, and HELP), and held at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, in April 2005. The contents of both are listed here; the preface and abstracts of the papers in each can be seen at www.iahs.info.
Global climate variability and change threaten local water resource availability in many regions on Earth. The effects of natural climate variability and of anthropogenic change are particularly felt in less developed countries where flood and drought often result in substantial loss of life and livelihood. Coupled with the marked decline in observational networks, there is a critical need for reliable information relevant to hazard mitigation and water resource management. The usefulness of hydrological science in helping decision makers understand and cope with the impacts of climate variability and change needs to be assessed. The importance of this topic is reflected in the large number of contributions to the symposium. Selected papers have been compiled into two volumes. In each, the papers are grouped geographically; the symposium’s emphasis on less developed countries is reflected in the many papers from Asia and South America.

Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change— Impact Assessment and Decision Making
Edited by Thorsten Wagener, Stewart Franks, Hoshin V. Gupta, Eva Bøgh, Luis Bastidas, Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão Publ. 295 (2005) ISBN 1-901502-08-2; 356 + x pp. Price £58.50		Considers the assessment of the hydrological impacts of future climate and then addresses decision making for mitigation/adaptation strategies, given the uncertainties associated with predictions by water resources and hydrological extremes models.
Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change Hydroclimatic Variability
Edited by Stewart Franks, Thorsten Wagener, Eva Bøgh, Hoshin V. Gupta, Luis Bastidas & Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão Publ. 296 (2005) ISBN 1-901502-13-9; 300 + x pp Price £58.50		This volume brings together diverse investigations from different climate zones and regions, many of the papers focusing on historic variability as a function of climate and/or land-use change.

Contents

Preface by Thorsten Wagener, Stewart Franks, Hoshin V. Gupta, Eva Bøgh, Luis Bastidas, Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galão		v
	Background and Summary Regional hydrological impacts of climate change—impact assessment and decision making Thorsten Wagener & Stewart Franks	1
1	Assessment of Potential Hydrological Impacts of Future Climate including the Role of Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Climate Change
1.1	South America
Potential impacts of climate change in the Plata basin Vicente Barros, Moira Doyle & Inés Camilloni (Invited)		11
Impact of climate change and agricultural developments in the Taquari River basin, Brazil Erik Querner, Remco Jonker, Carlos Padovani, Balbina Soriano & Sergio Galdino		19
Climate variability and climate change in Patagonian rivers Rafael S. Seoane, Juan B. Valdés & Luis J. Mata		26
1.2	North America & Europe
Hydrological response to climate variability, climate change, and climate extremes in the USA: climate model evaluation and projections L. Ruby Leung & Yun Qian		37
Regional effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Aliakmon River basin Maria Mimikou & Fotis Fotopoulos		45
Climate change effect on river flow in basins under different climate conditions—an example from rivers on the Balkan Peninsula Snejna Dakova		53
The impact of climate variability and change on water resources in the western coastal zone of the Black Sea Vesselin Alexandrov, Marin Genev & Hafzullah Aksoy		62
1.3	Africa
Impact of regional climate change on water availability in the Volta basin of West Africa Harald Kunstmann & Gerlinde Jung (Invited)		75
Hydrological catchment models: process representation, data availability and applicability for water management—case study for Benin Helge Bormann, Simone Giertz & Bernd Diekkrüger		86
Climate variability and impacts on an alluvial aquifer in a semiarid climate, the Logone-Chari plain (south of Lake Chad) Benjamin Ngounou Ngatcha, Jacques Mudry, Luc Sigha Nkamdjou, Roger Njitchoua & Emmanuel Naah		94
1.4	Asia
The potential impact of future climate change on Lebanese river basin hydrology using scenarios Antoine Hreiche, Claude Bocquillon, Wajdi Najem & Diala Dandach		103
The expansion of Himalayan glacial lakes due to global warming: field observations and numerical simulation for prediction Kazuhisa A. Chikita & Tomomi Yamada		111
Identifying potential hydrological impacts of climatic variability and change for Himalayan basins of Nepal David M. Hannah, Sunil R. Kansakar & John Gerrard		120
Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources, Pakistan Hayley J. Fowler & David R. Archer		131
Effect of the growing population on the air pollution, climatic variability and on the hydrological regime of the Ganga basin, India Anup K. Prasad, Ramesh P. Singh, Menas Kafatos & Ashbindu Singh		139
Hydrological impacts of climatic variability on water resources of the Damodar River basin, India Pankaj Kumar Roy & Asis Mazumdar		147
Impacts of climate variability and change on hydrology and water resources in the Yellow River basin Shenglian Guo, Pan Liu, Dingzhi Peng, Honggang Zhang, Bo Pan & Hua Chen		157
Climate change and water resources security in North China Xia Jun & Zhang Liping		167
Water resources variability from the past to future in the Yellow River, China Dawen Yang, Guangheng Ni, Shinjiro Kanae, Chong Li & Tetsuya Kusuda		174
Impact of climate fluctuation and land cover changes on runoff in the Yellow River basin Wang Miaolin & Xia Jun		183
Simulating effects of climate change on evapotranspiration of major crops in China Huaxia Yao, Michio Hashino & Zuoxing Yuan		189
1.5	Oceania
Impacts of long-term climate variability and climate change on flood frequency: Susannah Brook, Western Australia Jos Samuel, Murugesu Sivapalan & Stewart W. Franks		201
2	Hydroclimatically Relevant Decision-making, Risk-assessment and Mitigation/Adaptation Strategies using Uncertain Model Predictions of Water Resources and Hydrological Extremes
2.1	South America
Climatic predictability, hydrology and water resources over Nordeste Brazil Carlos O. Galvão, Paulo Nobre, Ana Cláudia F. M. Braga, Klécia F. de Oliveira, Richarde Marques, Simone R. da Silva, Manoel F. Gomes Filho, Celso A. G. Santos, Francis Lacerda & David Moncunill		211
Possible climate change impacts on water resources availability in a large semiarid catchment in Northeast Brazil Axel Bronstert, Andreas Güntner, José Carlos de Araújo, Annekathrin Jaeger & Maarten Krol		221
A case study of the use of sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as a predictor of river flows Andrea de Oliveira Cardoso, Robin T. Clarke & Pedro Leite da Silva Dias		231
Periodic auto-regressive streamflow models applied to operation planning for the Brazilian hydroelectric system Maria Elvira Pineiro Maceira & Jorge Machado Damázio		239
Estimating the climate change effect upon flood risk reduction by afforestation Raúl Alberto Díaz & Erik Paul Querner		248
Mapping floods in the St Joseph watershed, Trinidad, using GIS Serwan M. J. Baban & Ronnie Kantasingh		254
2.2	North America and Europe
Multi-resolution integrated assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on water resources in arid and semiarid regions Thorsten Wagener, Yuqiong Liu, Hoshin V. Gupta, Everett Springer & David Brookshire		265
Evaluating the utility of satellite-based precipitation estimates for flood forecasting in ungauged basins Koray K. Yilmaz, Hoshin V. Gupta, Terri S. Hogue, Kuo-Lin Hsu, Thorsten Wagener & Soroosh Sorooshian		273
Investigation of the uncertainty of hydrological modelling for climate change impact assessment Gabriele Hartmann & András Bárdossy		283
2.3	Africa
Linking water resources and global change in West Africa: options for assessment Jeremy Meigh, Sonja Folwell & Caroline Sullivan		297
2.4	Asia
Glacio-hydrological aspects of climate change in the Himalayas: mitigation of glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal Suresh Raj Chalise, Madan Lall Shrestha, Kamal Prakash Budhathoki & Mandira Singh Shrestha		309
Influence of climate variability on water resources sustainability in the Himalayan-Gangetic region R. B. Singh		317
Appropriate scales for hydro-climatological variables in the Red River basin Martijn J. Booij & Ha T. Tran		325
2.5	Oceania
Influence of Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature variability on winter rainfall across eastern Australia Danielle C. Verdon & Stewart W. Franks		335
ENSO-based streamflow forecasting and its application to water allocation and cropping decisions—an Australian experience Yahya Abawi, Sunil Dutta, Xike Zhang & David McClymont		346
Key word index		355